Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.653600 3.634687 5.034263 7.250433 1.081887e+01 1.662637e+01 27.469343
2025-03-30 1.714849 2.699405 4.393859 7.772011 1.506843e+01 3.234545e+01 86.590384
2025-04-06 1.104107 1.917196 3.523049 7.365739 1.809530e+01 5.504678e+01 275.442648
2025-04-13 0.733618 1.371670 2.774151 6.677059 2.041424e+01 9.004062e+01 1076.773726
2025-04-20 0.554206 1.116319 2.496671 7.030255 2.810278e+01 2.125386e+02 18434.833551
2025-04-27 0.448659 0.971980 2.408881 8.046308 4.457220e+01 7.746966e+02 NaN
2025-05-04 0.373161 0.864349 2.363381 9.401414 7.608443e+01 5.214866e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 0.304592 0.743244 2.200039 10.166736 1.191692e+02 7.859086e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 0.240788 0.607826 1.897219 9.738417 1.525725e+02 5.484859e+06 NaN
2025-05-25 0.189787 0.490430 1.588933 8.802559 1.734748e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.162640 0.436169 1.500856 9.448487 2.852721e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.140455 0.389193 1.413914 10.039998 4.806909e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.123007 0.353503 1.366245 11.201366 1.027398e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.107905 0.320208 1.308422 12.286433 2.391133e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.091366 0.275628 1.159448 11.716228 3.703350e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.076925 0.234353 1.003219 10.604891 4.681113e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.068671 0.214235 0.957166 11.330214 1.363394e+04 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.063287 0.203543 0.961629 13.284599 1.213516e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.058871 0.195217 0.976656 15.944314 2.528271e+07 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.053727 0.181990 0.948177 17.522773 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.047646 0.162751 0.861762 16.756371 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.041836 0.143196 0.761214 14.987798 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.038683 0.134741 0.741110 16.295139 NaN NaN NaN